Aggregated reports suggest global ad spend will rise 2.3% in 2010

Date: 16/12/2009

Global adspend will fall by 10.5% this year, but improve by 2.3% in 2010, according to Warc's latest Consensus Forecast.

The prediction for 2009 constitutes a downward revision on the estimate of a decline of 8.4% made in the most recent Consensus Forecast, and is based on a weighted average of recent predictions made by ad agencies, media companies and industry associations. This aggregated data is provided on the condition of anonymity, preventing more information from being released.

China is set to record the best overall performance among the 13 countries assessed, with an uptick of 8.0% this year, and of 10.6% over the following 12 months.

India also remains well-placed, and is set to see ad revenues expand by 5.7% in 2009, although its annual growth rate has been reduced from the level of 8.4% in April, and 6.4% in November.

Advertiser budgets in the Asian nation are due to climb by 9.4% in 2010, while Brazil is expected to experience annual gains of 3.7% and 10.7% in the same timeframe.

By contrast, Russia is likely to witness a contraction of 32.1% this year, with a positive movement of 5.4% next year.

Elsewhere in Europe, Spain will deliver successive decreases of 20.3% and 1.8%, with the UK off by 12.5% and 0.3%, and Germany down by 8.6% in the first year, and staying largely flat in the second.

The US and Japan will also register double-digit drops in 2009, standing at 13.4% and 11.6% in turn, with further respective reversals of 1.4% and 2.6% in 2010.

In terms of individual media, the climate remains particularly austere for newspapers, with only India and China generating year-on-year increases in 2009, averaging out at 4.4% for these two nations.

Russian totals might slide by as much 46.3%, with press also plummeting by between a fifth and a quarter in Italy, Japan, Spain, the UK and US.

Magazine adspend will shrink in eleven of the countries featured in the Consensus Forecast this year, ranging from a negative trend of 11.1% in Australia to one of 33.4% in Spain, and 48.4% in Russia.

Of the two markets where comparatives could improve, such a jump may well be limited to just 1.9% in Brazil, and 3.1% in China.

While print's decline should slow in 2010, only Brazil, Russia, India and China will enjoy growth, suggesting the downturn has combined with a longer-term structural shift in impacting the category.

Conditions are slightly more stable for television, with heightened investment in Brazil, India and China, and small dips in Australia and China in 2009.

In the US, TV expenditure will diminish by 10.9% year-on-year, with more substantial decreases in the UK, France, Germany and Japan, albeit all within 2% of this figure.

More positively, it is suggested that marketers in two-thirds of the sample are intending to devote more resources to TV in 2010, with Brazil, China and India up by more than 11%, the US by 1.8%, and France by 1.3%.

The situation for outdoor largely replicates that for TV during the period under consideration, with only Japan, Italy, Germany and Spain seeing this channel continue to struggle in 2010.

Unsurprisingly, online is the most resilient form of major media, with only Russia down this year, and every market in the black in 2010.

Warc's Consensus Forecast contains predictions for the major media spending in each of the markets assessed. For more information, and to see the PowerPoint charts that accompany this research, please email [email protected].

Data sourced from Warc, 16 December 2009

WFA collates data on global ad spend and media trends to help members understand market conditions and communications investment around the world. For more information please contact [email protected]


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